Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
