Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
